The Three to Watch – 3rd Up – Heather Grant (NC)

By @Belle_River

Heather Grant_1

Nurse, officer, soldier, care giver and dark horse in the NC primary. Heather Grant has worn many hats, but all if them have involved caring for others. @HeatherGrantNC

But that’s not why Heather Grant is the Republican to watch in NC politics. Heather is wisely coasting while her 2014 Senate race opponents go for the jugular – against each other. Sometimes I wonder if some of them even notice her. Better yet, maybe she’s so clean there is nothing negative to say about her. That will be the perception, whether or not it’s true. All the while Heather’s positives rise, her name recognition rises, and the mud flying around never lands on her.

*Note: some polling is provided by liberal PPP. We were blue for far too long. Plus, it’s just fun to read how they spin the numbers.

Wait, in case you’re thinking this is going to be tongue in cheek, it’s not at all. Heather Grant is a real threat in this race. Here is why.

Her record: She’s not just a woman, she’s a soldier. She’s not just a soldier, she’s an officer. And she’s not just an officer, she’s a nurse. Her record is one that many North Carolina voters can embrace – a history of serving her country and caring for her neighbors. That is what we mean by Carolina state of mind.

Immigration: She’s got the border security and deportation market cornered. She’s the only real enforcement voice on immigration, calling illegal immigration a criminal offense. Republican candidates continue to under estimate the importance of this issue, or how, in our minds, it plays into the overall environment of lawlessness created by this, and even previous, administration(s). Pundits on both sides continue to claim turn out is the key to success. If so, unaffiliated voters may turn out for Republican primaries in NC to ensure Heather Grant gets the nomination. No other candidate touches her on this issue. Pray voter ID survives.

Tillis and Brannon, tied, and are hitting each other hard. Hagan has been honing in on Tillis for nearly 6 months. They may just all take each other out of this race. They certainly helped us decide. Go Heather!

But hold on, you probably noticed, Heather is not the candidate in the lead, according to PPP, and she’s not the favorite by most. Ted Alexander has some great numbers, but he was the last candidate to announce, mid-January, and we think that’s just a new kid thing.

Yes, we’ve said it already, it’s a competitive field in NC this year. All of the candidates are good, and have a good base of supporters. But here is a recap. Greg Brannon has that court thing, Thom Tillis has that toll road thing, Mark Harris has that preacher thing, and Ted Alexander seems to maybe have the new kid thing. If unaffiliated conservatives and common sense Republicans in North Carolina turn out for the primary, our dark horse might just take a victory lap.

Heather may not win this particular race. But that won’t mean she isn’t one to watch. This woman has a bright future ahead. She’s just getting started…

*ABH (Anybody but Hagan): No matter how PPP tries to spin it, the numbers are not good for Hagan. Notice how the % if respondents who would vote for Hagan is equal to the number of Democrats polled, within the margin of error (MOE). The favorite Republican may shift from poll to poll, also within MOE. Republican candidates still lead Hagan by a greater margin than name recognition, and by greater than the demographic skew in the polling. Though it’s the only consistent, public tracking poll in NC, it’s not at all representative of NC likely voters. It’s over-weighted for Democrats, under-weighted for others, especially unaffiliated voters, 26% of registered voters in NC. PPP rates us at 17%. Most of us don’t know that we can vote in the primaries. On either side. We are the establishment’s worst nightmare!

Just keep in mind, 40 years of blue have left a real conservative void in polling, strategy and overall support opportunities for conservatives. PPP polls are weighted heavily toward Democrats and don’t come close to actual NC voter demographics. But this is the only poll that really tracks candidates month to month – and the skew is an great proof of how Democrats progressives their polls.

Learn more about Heather Grant here and follow her on Twitter!

Catch up on other candidates we’ve profiled:

Dan Bongino – MD 6 (here and here)

Senator Tim Scott – U.S. Senator from South Carolina (here)

Col. Rob Maness – U.S. Senate Candidate from Louisiana (here)

Rep. Stace Nelson – U.S. Senate Candidate from South Dakota (here)

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